In earlier centuries, book publishing was instant
communication. It might take you a year or more
to go from manuscript to a printed book, but the
world changed very little in a year.
In our day it still takes the publishing bureaucracy
a year to get a book out and these days an awful
lot happens in a year.
The year before the first sheep was cloned a scientist
submitted his final manuscript for a book to come
out the following year. One of the things he proved
conclusively was that scientists would never be
able to clone an animal. The first cloned sheep
and the book came out the same month.
This made this particular scientist the best known
man in his field. All the media mentioned him, which,
for a hard science man, is a lot of publicity. His
career is going very nicely, thank you.
Being wrong HELPED his career. This is not unusual.
Very few people I know ever go back and read old
conservative writings. So everyone who finally does
actually read old conservative writings thinks he
has made a unique discovery. It turns out that the
person he reads was psychic!
Predictions about the future from the Old South
are uncannily accurate. Segregationist writings
about what would happen with integration are dead
accurate. Conservative predictions about the results
of liberal programs are right on target, and nothing
liberals say ever works out.
In 1985, not one single paid Soviet expert had
the slightest inkling about the collapse of the
USSR. Every single paid Russian expert today is
either one of those who were paid in 1985 or they
were given their credentials by people who were
paid Soviet experts in 1985. Being wrong meant less
than nothing.
Futurology is defined as an attempt to predict
the future. It is nothing of the sort. Futurologists
are people who are PAID to predict the future and
are PUBLISHED when they write about the future.
Here is the important point: Nobody will ever go
back over what the futurologists predicted and say
who was right and who was wrong.
To the futurologist, predicting the future is totally
irrelevant. What he must do is GET PAID to write
about the future and get his predictions on the
future PUBLISHED. Being paid and published NOW is
all that matters for a professional futurologist.
If a futurologist predicts anything Politically
Incorrect, he will lose his job as a futurologist
and no one will publish his predictions. No futurologist
ever predicts anything that offends today's publishers
or media managers.
Like today's history, today's futurology is a Just-So
Story in which everything past and present fits
in perfectly with the picture Politically Correct
people want. Any future that doesn't fit will get
you fired, and any past that doesn't fit will mean
you never get published again.
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